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Pre-open brief

NIFTY

NIFTYBANKNIFTYSENSEX
NIFTY
22,997
close of Thu 15 Oct
change
+1.66%
22,637 – 23,056
trend, this timeframe
falling
falling
the last swing was down; a bounce is in progress
a normal move
273
points, one day

Sixty sessions with the levels that have held, and the heaviest option strikes on the same price scale — the weekly expiry, Mon 19 Oct, 4 days to go.

NIFTY22,997▲ +1.66%fallingDay's range 419 pointsPCR 1.53Momentum mixedRegime in transition
60 sessions · daily candles · the levels that have heldR2 23,489Weekly R 23,172 · the swing beforeR1 23,116 · weekly tooWeekly S 22,737 · last weekly swingS1 22,180 · nearest there isbroke down through 23,805broke up through 24,367broke down through 24,026broke down through 23,11622,997 close22 Jul7 Aug25 Aug10 Sep29 Sep
Open interest by strikeWeekly expiry · Mon 19 Oct · 4 days to go · PCR 1.53
calls writtenputs written23,00023,000 calls — 82,10,995 contracts open23,20023,200 calls — 68,21,490 contracts open23,10023,100 calls — 65,83,395 contracts open22,80022,800 puts — 85,41,975 contracts open22,90022,900 puts — 79,03,220 contracts open23,00023,000 puts — 58,33,425 contracts open22,997

Levels

  • R223,489
  • R123,116on the weekly chart too
  • S122,1803.6% away — the nearest there is

R is resistance above the close, S is support below it, nearest first. Chosen by how often price has turned there and whether the weekly and monthly charts agree.

The day and the week

Day range419 pts
22,63723,056

closed at the high end of its day, 360 points above the low

Higher through the week, 2.12% over the 5 sessions.

Where the option writers sit

Heaviest calls
24,000
Heaviest puts
22,500
Most option value expires at
22,900
PCR (puts against calls)
1.53

The strikes with the most open contracts on each side, and the strike where the most option value would expire worthless.

  • R1, R2 — resistance above the close, nearest first
  • S1, S2 — support below the close, nearest first
  • the nearest level of the last weekly swing
  • a level price has broken through
  • strikes with calls written
  • strikes with puts written
The last five sessions
NIFTY▲ +2.12% over the week
Fri 9 Oct — fallingMon 12 Oct — fallingTue 13 Oct — fallingWed 14 Oct — fallingThu 15 Oct — falling9 Oct15 Oct
In plain words

Higher through the week, 2.12% over the 5 sessions. All five sessions were falling.

The last session: 419 points from low to high; closed at the high end of its day, 360 points above the low.

The last weekly swing

22,183 on 2 Apr to 24,774 on 7 Aug, up 11.7% — and before it, 26,373 on 9 Jan to 22,183 on 2 Apr, down 15.9%.

R323,478reached 9 SepR223,173reached 15 SepR123,172reached 8 Apr · from the earlier swingS122,737reached 29 Sep22,997where it closed

These are the levels of the two swings named above. R1 is the first one above today's close, S1 the first below. "Reached" means price has already traded through it.

What such levels have done
Price usually goes through these levels rather than back from them.
  • Closed straight through within ten sessions: 129 of 178 first touches.
  • Fell a full day's range back from one: 91 of the same 178.
  • Often on the very same touch — which is why a level can look like it held and price still ends up past it.
The Fibonacci number is not what makes it work.
  • Lines at ordinary fractions of the same swings — 0.30, 0.45, 0.55, 0.70, 0.85 — behaved the same.
  • Price went through 71% of those, against 72% of the Fibonacci ones.
  • It is the swing that matters, not the ratio.
Once price is cutting through a swing, it has tended to keep going.
  • After a close pushed half a day's range past the middle of the swing:
  • Reached the next level down within ten sessions: 27 of 34.
  • Within twenty sessions: 30 of 34.
  • A count of what has happened before, not a promise about this week.

Where NIFTY stands — day, week and month

as of Thu 15 Oct 15:30

the timeframes are not reading the same way.

Day

falling
22,997.35

lower highs and lower lows

Where in the swing
the last swing was down; a bounce is in progress
Momentum
mixed
Range
about as wide as usual
Compression
the compression rule reads: a move down out of the range
tightwide
22,180 – 23,056

over the next five sessions, the typical move has been about 1.0× a normal day's range; one in ten went beyond 2.7×

Week

rising
22,997.35

higher highs and higher lows

Where in the swing
the last swing was up; a pullback is in progress
Momentum
mixed
Range
a much wider stretch than usual
Compression
the compression rule reads: a move up out of the range
tightwide
22,180 – 24,621

over the next few weeks, the typical move has been about 1.0× a normal week's range; one in ten went beyond 2.4×

Month

sideways
22,997.35

inside a range, neither side taken

Where in the swing
the last swing was down; a bounce is in progress
Momentum
mixed
Range
a wider stretch than usual
Compression
the compression rule reads: a move down out of the range
tightwide
22,180 – 26,373

over the next few months, the typical move has been about 0.9× a normal month's range; one in ten went beyond 1.9×

Show the recordHide the record

What levels like these have done

as of Thu 15 Oct 15:30
LevelTimes touched beforePrice came to itTurned a day’s range backClosed throughPast cases
above the close, also on a longer timeframe177 in 10065 in 10080 in 1003,844
above the close174 in 10064 in 10082 in 1003,273
above the close, also on a longer timeframe289 in 10062 in 10084 in 1001,731
above the close295 in 10063 in 10089 in 100548
above the close, also on a longer timeframe3+91 in 10056 in 10083 in 1001,743
above the close3+97 in 10058 in 10089 in 100488
below the close, also on a longer timeframe165 in 10074 in 10075 in 1004,420
below the close163 in 10075 in 10078 in 1004,405
below the close, also on a longer timeframe283 in 10067 in 10080 in 1001,906
below the close279 in 10069 in 10076 in 100616
below the close, also on a longer timeframe3+85 in 10072 in 10073 in 1001,879
below the close3+89 in 10072 in 10079 in 100577

The last two columns are counted over the touches that were REACHED, and they overlap: on one touch price can turn a day’s range back and still close beyond it inside the window. Both are shown because printing one of them would be choosing the answer. On a level like the ones in this table, price came to it 89 times in 100, over 1,731 past cases; of those it turned a day's range back 62 times in 100 and closed through 84 times in 100.

How far it has actually travelled

as of Thu 15 Oct 15:30
Over50 sessions in 100 stayed inside75 sessions in 100 stayed inside90 sessions in 100 stayed inside
the next session0.6%1.0%1.6%
the next 5 sessions1.5%2.5%3.6%
the next 21 sessions3.2%5.4%7.1%

How far the index has actually travelled, counted over every past session. Read a row as: over that many sessions, this many in a hundred stayed inside that much either way. 75 sessions in 100 have stayed inside 2.5% either way over the next 5 sessions.

M and W formations, and their necklines

as of Thu 15 Oct 15:30
ShapeConfirmedNecklineHeightMeasured moveWhat happened
M2026-08-3123,6065.2×22,682reached
M2026-08-3123,6064.3×22,845reached
W2026-07-2924,3672.4×24,929did not reach
W2026-07-2924,5313.2×25,277did not reach
M2026-07-2223,8052.9×23,080did not reach
W2026-07-1324,5312.8×25,277did not reach
M2026-07-1023,0705.9×21,658still open
W2026-06-2924,4822.5×25,167still open
M2026-06-2323,0703.7×22,051still open
M2026-06-2323,0704.6×21,806still open

Breakouts and breakdowns

as of Thu 15 Oct 15:30
WhenWayLevelCloseHow far it wentStill beyond
2026-09-24down through23,11623,0634.5×yes
2026-09-02down through24,02623,9143.3×yes
2026-07-31up through24,36724,3841.9×yes
2026-07-24down through23,80523,7670.0×no
2026-07-03up through24,18924,2711.4×yes
2026-06-18up through24,09024,1680.6×no
2026-06-08down through23,26323,1230.6×no
2026-05-12down through23,79723,3801.5×yes
2026-04-08up through23,46523,9971.9×yes
2026-03-30down through22,47122,3310.6×no
2026-02-27down through25,37325,1795.8×yes
2026-02-13down through25,49225,4710.4×no
2026-02-03up through25,45825,7281.5×yes
2026-02-01down through24,92024,8250.8×no
2026-01-08down through25,87825,8772.3×yes
2026-01-02up through26,23626,3290.8×no
2025-12-22up through26,05826,1720.9×no
2025-12-09down through25,89125,8401.0×yes
2025-11-20up through26,09826,1921.1×yes
2025-11-04down through25,71825,5982.0×no
For NIFTYthe timeframes are not reading the same way; day falling; week rising; month sidewaysfalling