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Pre-open brief

BANKNIFTY

NIFTYBANKNIFTYSENSEX
BANKNIFTY
55,811
close of Thu 15 Oct
change
+0.89%
55,279 – 56,066
trend, this timeframe
falling
falling
the last swing was down; a bounce is in progress
a normal move
693
points, one day

Sixty sessions with the levels that have held, and the heaviest option strikes on the same price scale — the monthly expiry, Tue 27 Oct, 12 days to go.

BANKNIFTY55,811▲ +0.89%fallingDay's range 787 pointsPCR 1.03Momentum mixedRegime in transition
60 sessions · daily candles · the levels that have heldR1 56,996 · 2 touchesWeekly R 56,444 · last weekly swingWeekly S 55,745 · last weekly swingS1 53,786 · nearest there isbroke down through 56,823broke down through 57,002broke down through 55,69955,811 close22 Jul7 Aug25 Aug10 Sep29 Sep
Open interest by strikeMonthly expiry · Tue 27 Oct · 12 days to go · PCR 1.03
calls writtenputs written56,00056,000 calls — 13,01,520 contracts open55,50055,500 calls — 7,13,700 contracts open55,80055,800 calls — 2,44,650 contracts open55,50055,500 puts — 8,88,990 contracts open56,00056,000 puts — 7,48,860 contracts open55,40055,400 puts — 2,02,080 contracts open55,811

Levels

  • R156,996touched twice
  • S153,7863.6% away — the nearest there is

R is resistance above the close, S is support below it, nearest first. Chosen by how often price has turned there and whether the weekly and monthly charts agree.

The day and the week

Day range787 pts
55,27956,066

closed in the middle of its day

Fell early, then recovered — 1.00% higher over the 5 sessions.

Where the option writers sit

Heaviest calls
56,000
Heaviest puts
55,000
Most option value expires at
55,800
PCR (puts against calls)
1.03

The strikes with the most open contracts on each side, and the strike where the most option value would expire worthless.

  • R1, R2 — resistance above the close, nearest first
  • S1, S2 — support below the close, nearest first
  • the nearest level of the last weekly swing
  • a level price has broken through
  • strikes with calls written
  • strikes with puts written
The last five sessions
BANKNIFTY▲ +1.00% over the week
Fri 9 Oct — fallingMon 12 Oct — fallingTue 13 Oct — fallingWed 14 Oct — fallingThu 15 Oct — falling9 Oct15 Oct
In plain words

Fell early, then recovered — 1.00% higher over the 5 sessions. All five sessions were falling.

The last session: 787 points from low to high; closed in the middle of its day.

The last weekly swing

52,783 on 22 May to 58,706 on 25 Jun, up 11.2% — and before it, 57,456 on 24 Apr to 52,783 on 22 May, down 8.1%.

R357,308reached 8 JulR256,456reached 12 Jun · from the earlier swingR156,444reached 23 JulS155,745reached 11 SepS255,671reached 12 Jun · from the earlier swingS355,120reached 25 May · from the earlier swing55,811where it closed

These are the levels of the two swings named above. R1 is the first one above today's close, S1 the first below. "Reached" means price has already traded through it.

What such levels have done
Price usually goes through these levels rather than back from them.
  • Closed straight through within ten sessions: 178 of 242 first touches.
  • Fell a full day's range back from one: 117 of the same 242.
  • Often on the very same touch — which is why a level can look like it held and price still ends up past it.
The Fibonacci number is not what makes it work.
  • Lines at ordinary fractions of the same swings — 0.30, 0.45, 0.55, 0.70, 0.85 — behaved the same.
  • Price went through 71% of those, against 74% of the Fibonacci ones.
  • It is the swing that matters, not the ratio.
Once price is cutting through a swing, it has tended to keep going.
  • After a close pushed half a day's range past the middle of the swing:
  • Reached the next level down within ten sessions: 39 of 49.
  • Within twenty sessions: 42 of 49.
  • A count of what has happened before, not a promise about this week.

Where BANKNIFTY stands — day, week and month

as of Thu 15 Oct 15:30

day, week and month are reading the same way.

Day

falling
55,810.50

lower highs and lower lows

Where in the swing
the last swing was down; a bounce is in progress
Momentum
mixed
Range
about as wide as usual
Compression
the compression rule reads: a move down out of the range
tightwide
54,067 – 56,066

over the next five sessions, the typical move has been about 1.0× a normal day's range; one in ten went beyond 2.6×

Week

falling
55,810.50

lower highs and lower lows

Where in the swing
the last swing was up; a pullback is in progress
Momentum
mixed
Range
about as wide as usual
Compression
the compression rule reads: a move up out of the range
tightwide
53,786 – 58,025

over the next few weeks, the typical move has been about 1.0× a normal week's range; one in ten went beyond 2.4×

Month

falling
55,810.50

lower highs and lower lows

Where in the swing
the last swing was up; a pullback is in progress
Momentum
mixed
Range
a much wider stretch than usual
Compression
the compression rule reads: a move up out of the range
tightwide
49,955 – 61,765

over the next few months, the typical move has been about 0.8× a normal month's range; one in ten went beyond 1.9×

Show the recordHide the record

What levels like these have done

as of Thu 15 Oct 15:30
LevelTimes touched beforePrice came to itTurned a day’s range backClosed throughPast cases
above the close, also on a longer timeframe176 in 10065 in 10078 in 1003,859
above the close174 in 10067 in 10078 in 1003,121
above the close, also on a longer timeframe288 in 10061 in 10083 in 1001,611
above the close281 in 10064 in 10075 in 100661
above the close, also on a longer timeframe3+91 in 10058 in 10085 in 1002,280
above the close3+90 in 10058 in 10078 in 100419
below the close, also on a longer timeframe164 in 10073 in 10074 in 1004,802
below the close167 in 10071 in 10074 in 1003,685
below the close, also on a longer timeframe280 in 10069 in 10077 in 1001,813
below the close279 in 10074 in 10067 in 100568
below the close, also on a longer timeframe3+89 in 10069 in 10077 in 1002,446
below the close3+90 in 10072 in 10069 in 100459

The last two columns are counted over the touches that were REACHED, and they overlap: on one touch price can turn a day’s range back and still close beyond it inside the window. Both are shown because printing one of them would be choosing the answer. On a level like the ones in this table, price came to it 88 times in 100, over 1,611 past cases; of those it turned a day's range back 61 times in 100 and closed through 83 times in 100.

How far it has actually travelled

as of Thu 15 Oct 15:30
Over50 sessions in 100 stayed inside75 sessions in 100 stayed inside90 sessions in 100 stayed inside
the next session0.8%1.4%2.3%
the next 5 sessions2.0%3.5%5.0%
the next 21 sessions4.5%7.6%10.5%

How far the index has actually travelled, counted over every past session. Read a row as: over that many sessions, this many in a hundred stayed inside that much either way. 75 sessions in 100 have stayed inside 3.5% either way over the next 5 sessions.

M and W formations, and their necklines

as of Thu 15 Oct 15:30
ShapeConfirmedNecklineHeightMeasured moveWhat happened
W2026-09-1758,2484.1×60,472still open
M2026-09-0357,0022.3×55,756reached
W2026-08-2458,5973.7×60,644still open
W2026-08-2458,7062.9×60,337still open
M2026-08-0656,0242.9×54,026still open
M2026-08-0656,0243.8×53,341still open
M2026-08-0656,0243.7×53,450still open
W2026-07-2958,5972.6×60,644still open
M2026-07-2256,5492.8×54,393still open
W2026-07-1358,7062.1×60,337still open

Breakouts and breakdowns

as of Thu 15 Oct 15:30
WhenWayLevelCloseHow far it wentStill beyond
2026-09-24down through55,69955,4393.2×yes
2026-09-08down through57,00256,7782.5×yes
2026-09-08down through56,82356,7782.1×yes
2026-07-08down through57,07556,7430.3×no
2026-06-24up through58,02158,1500.8×yes
2026-06-12up through55,53756,8152.6×yes
2026-05-12down through54,22253,5551.4×yes
2026-03-02down through59,86159,8406.1×yes
2026-02-16up through60,87660,9491.1×yes
2026-02-04up through60,23560,2380.7×yes
2026-02-04up through60,06160,2380.9×yes
2026-01-21down through58,86458,8001.3×no
2025-12-31up through59,47859,5822.2×yes
2025-11-26up through59,44059,5281.3×no
2025-11-14up through58,47058,5181.9×yes
2025-10-06up through55,83556,1052.0×yes
2025-08-26down through54,90654,4502.7×yes
2025-07-28down through56,20556,0851.4×yes
2025-07-18down through56,59456,2830.7×yes
2025-06-26up through57,05057,2071.0×no
For NIFTYthe timeframes are not reading the same way; day falling; week rising; month sidewaysfalling